Economy
What do consumer confidence surveys actually measure?
Two surveys, different questions and timing — and a documented gap between sentiment and spending that is the finding, not a flaw.
Author
Sofia Lindqvist
Sofia Lindqvist builds models for a living and is unusually honest about how often they are wrong. She covers portfolio construction and rebalancing, model validation design, payment fraud methods and where liability lands, media formats assessed by cost and lifespan, and wages, hours and bargaining across employment sectors.
Articles by Sofia Lindqvist
Analysis
Feature importance is not causation: the mixer problem
Importance scores measure a model's reliance on inputs under correlations — a variable your model ranks first may only be standing in for the real driver.
Investing
Dividend yield or total return: which number answers your question?
The two statistics differ by construction — one prices income against price, the other measures everything — and confusing them misprices risk.
Analysis
What does it mean for a probability forecast to be calibrated?
Calibration is the match between stated probabilities and observed frequencies — measurable with Brier scores and reliability diagrams, and distinct from…
Investing
How much international diversification do you actually get?
Correlations, coverage and return dispersion set the measurable answer — and each has moved over the decades.